Media reported falling revenues in 2019 to a minimum of 20 years – RBC

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In 2019 federal budget revenues in relation to GDP will fall to 20-year low – 13.3% of GDP, “Vedomosti”, with reference to the design of the budget for the next three years

The federal budget revenues in relation to GDP will continue decline in the next three years, and in 2019 will drop to 20-year low – 13.3% of GDP, according to “Vedomosti”, with reference to the design of the budget 2017-2019 gg. The newspaper notes that less – 12.8% of GDP – it was only in 1999

According to the forecast budget revenues structure, according to “Vedomosti”, oil and gas revenues will continue to decline in nominal terms, and in relation to. GDP and non-oil increased in nominal terms, but the fact of their growth lagged behind the pace of nominal GDP.

the share of income redistributed through the federal budget, will fall to 13.7% of GDP in the next three years, while in the previous 10 years averaged 20% of GDP. The reason – dwindling oil and gas revenues. In 2016 they will bring the budget at least 6% of gross national income, and ten years ago, in 2006, brought to 10%; in the 2018-2019 biennium. this figure is less than 5%. Non-oil revenues meanwhile does not compensate for this reduction.

As the “Vedomosti” noted, the calculation for the next three years are made on the basis of the basic version of the updated MED forecast, according to which the price of oil remains at $ 40 per barrel, all three next year.

budget revenues in 2016, according to calculations the Ministry of Finance, will be 1.2 trillion rubles. lower than planned by the budget law, which was adopted on the basis of $ 50 per barrel. The new estimate – $ 41 per barrel. Revenue in 2016 will be less than 8% compared to 2015, and taking into account the average annual inflation rate of decline in real terms, more than 15%. Grow revenue forecast the Ministry of Finance, will begin only in 2018, but slower than average inflation. As a result, in real terms, they are reduced by almost a quarter to a level of 2015

The costs for the same period will be reduced in real terms by almost 20% -. Provided that their level will be frozen for all three years, suggests Cabinet, and that the costs in 2016 will also be reduced to this level. Without reducing spending exceeds 4% deficit in 2016, while the Ministry of Finance wants to meet the 3,3%.

When freezing nominal over the next three years, the costs at the same time requires either cut them by 3.5 trillion rubles., or for that amount to increase revenues. Otherwise, the Ministry of Finance planned sequential decrease in the deficit will not work. The government has rejected the proposal of the Ministry to increase revenue by raising taxes in 2018.

The conservative planning budget leaves an opportunity to get in reality higher incomes, noted “Vedomosti”. Head of MED Alexei Ulyukayev said that maintaining oil prices at the current level of $ 41-42 per barrel in the next three years is unlikely. A more realistic forecast is $ 50 in 2017 and $ 55 in the next two years. According to federal officials, the newspaper writes, at the Ministry of Economic Development was the idea of ​​this scenario offer a basis for the budget, to avoid tougher consolidation.

increase in the price of oil for every $ 1 from the level of $ 40 per barrel, according to calculations Ministry of Finance, the budget will bring an additional 87 billion rubles., if it is at the same time to increase the ruble, to 144 billion rubles., if the exchange rate will not change. The required scope of consolidation in 2017 – 710 billion rubles. (From 3.5 trillion over three years). Thus, an additional $ 10 per barrel in 2017 can completely solve the problem, “Vedomosti».

were ideas lay above the price of oil and other ruble exchange rate, said a federal official, but is refused – agreed ” that the budget will fall $ 40 to the three-year “. According to the official, revenues in 2016 are updated due to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate, but 10% nedovedenie limits will allow to enter the deficit a little more than 3,2%.

Director of the Higher School of Economics Center Natalia Akindinova He stresses that even the freezing of nominal spending may cost the economy 0.5 percentage points of growth per year. However, she said, the budget is better to plan conservatively, and in the case of additional revenue is to send them to an accelerated deficit reduction. To accelerate growth need not raise the overall level of spending, and to change their structure – to replace the overhead on performance, as well as to carry out reforms. Akindinova notes that at such low income – 13% of GDP – the budget will not be able to finance the costs necessary to carry out its functions, the state and the tax increase is inevitable.