Economic activity in the regions of Russia remains low, indicating that the ongoing recession, the HSE stated the experts. “Doldrums” observed in all federal districts, except for the Crimea
The experts of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) analyzed the state of the Russian economy in the regional context and concluded that in the doldrums staying all federal districts, except for the Crimea. This is stated in the latest issue of the Bulletin of HSE “Comments on the state and business»
Economists have estimated for each subject of the Federation, the index of regional economic activity (REA) according to the following principle. They looked at the dynamics of output / turnover in the five sectors (industry, construction, retail and wholesale trade, paid services) in relation to the same month of the previous year, assigning a value of 100, if the figure rose, and zero – otherwise. Thus, if equal to 100% growth was observed in the region in the five sectors, the index of economic activity in this region, if the four sectors, then 80%, etc. The composite index of REA is calculated as the simple arithmetic average of the regional indexes.
It turned out that the combined index CEA did not rise above 50% since January 2015 and was at the level of 42% in May 2016, “that definitely indicates the continuation of the recession, “the report said. The composite index fell below the threshold of 50% in all federal districts, except for the Crimea – there is “recession signs are not observed.” In most federal districts – the Central, North-Western, Southern, Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern – Economic activity indicators correspond approximately to the average across Russia and the situation in the North Caucasus, and especially the Ural districts noticeably worse
In. April, Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev said that the Crimea shows “impressive” economic growth.
«In spite of the great variety of Russian regions by the level and development potential, for them is a problem of the formation of their own growth trajectory, compensating negative trends, folding at the level of the economy as a whole “, – stated in the review of the HSE. Doldrums characteristic of all economic sectors, except industry and wholesale trade, state the authors. “It is particularly strong decline in retail sales, where growth is observed only in every sixth region”, – says the publication. The best situation is in the sector of market services and construction sectors in these regions in the 35-40% growth is observed.
The share of the regions in which reduced the five sectors of the economy is growing or only one, is still very high, which allows the authors make a conclusion on the continuation of the recession in the Russian economy. “Distribution of the Federation on the different levels of economic activity in May 2016 clearly does not give cause to expect a speedy completion of the recession”, – noted in the review
May the leaders in terms of economic activity began seven regions: Belgorod and Leningrad region. , Krasnodar region, Udmurtia, Penza region and the Crimea with Sevastopol. “Outsiders” experts call the HSE Komi, Tyva, Karachay-Cherkessia and Primorsky Krai.
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