Experts believe the HSE Crimea only “not depressed” districts of Russia – Kommersant

Experts of the Higher School of Economics (HSE), after analyzing the state of the Russian economy at the regional level have concluded that depressed staying all federal districts, except for the Crimea. According to RBC with reference to the HSE newsletter “Comments of the state and business” in every region of the experts analyzed the dynamics of five sectors – industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, paid services. On this basis, the experts calculated the composite index of regional economic activity (REA): it is 100% for the regions, where there are five sectors of the economy, and 0% for the regions, where all sectors yoy decline

According to the HSE professionals, CEA composite index rose above 50% since January 2015, and dropped to the level of 42% in May 2016, “that definitely points to a continuation of the recession.” According to the report, the composite index was below the threshold of 50% in all federal districts, except for the Crimea, where “there is no sign of a recession.” In most federal districts – the Central, North-Western, Southern, Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern – Economic activity indicators correspond approximately to the average across Russia and the situation in the North Caucasus, and especially the Ural districts was worse

«in spite of the great variety of Russian regions in terms of development and the potential for them is a problem of the formation of their own trajectory of growth, offsetting the negative trends, folding at the level of the economy as a whole”, – said in the review of the HSE. According to experts, depression is inherent in all economic sectors, except industry and the wholesale trade. “It is particularly strong decline in retail sales, where growth is observed only in every sixth region”, – the report says. Experts say that the best situation is in the sector of market services and construction: for these sectors observed growth in the 35-40% region

However, the share of the regions in which all five sectors are declining. the economy is growing or only one, is still very high. “Distribution of the Federation on the different levels of economic activity in May 2016 clearly does not give cause to expect a speedy completion of the recession”, – underline the review authors. It is reported that in May, the leaders of the level of economic activity began seven regions: Belgorod and Leningrad Region, Krasnodar Territory, Udmurtia, Penza region and the Crimea with Sevastopol. “Outsiders” experts call the HSE Komi, Tyva, Karachay-Cherkessia and Primorsky Krai.